Canada sees drastic fall in Indian student visas amidst ongoing diplomatic row, ET TravelWorld

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Canada‘s issuance of study permits to Indian students plummeted in the latter part of last year, influenced by the expulsion of Canadian diplomats from India, pivotal in the permit processing. This dip also reflects a dip in applications amidst diplomatic tensions tied to the murder of Sikh separatist leader Hardeep Singh Nijjar on Canadian soil, as disclosed by immigration minister Marc Miller to Reuters.

Diplomatic tensions linger
Minister Miller doesn’t foresee a quick recovery in the number of study permits issued to Indian students. The diplomatic rift was ignited when Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, in June, implicated Indian government agents in Nijjar’s murder in British Columbia. “Our relationship with India has really halved our ability to process a lot of applications from India,” Miller remarked.

Operational setbacks
In October, a directive from New Delhi led Canada to withdraw 41 diplomats, shrinking its Indian staff by two-thirds. Concurrently, the diplomatic dispute has nudged Indian students towards educational prospects in other nations, a phenomenon noted by a spokesperson for the minister.

Statistics speak
The repercussions were stark, with an 86 per cent plunge in study permits issued to Indians in the last quarter compared to the previous, tumbling to 14,910 from 108,940. C Gurusubramanian, counselor for the High Commission of India in Ottawa, highlighted a growing trend of Indian students exploring alternatives due to concerns about living and educational amenities in some Canadian institutions.

Dominant demographic
Traditionally, Indians have been the largest cohort among international students in Canada, seizing over 41 per cent of all permits in 2022, equating to 225,835 individuals.

Uncertain horizon
“I can’t tell you about how the diplomatic relationship will evolve, particularly if police were to lay charges,” Miller said, addressing the complex diplomatic dynamics. He added, “It’s not something that I see any light at the end of the tunnel on.”

Economic implications

The downturn in international student enrollment, especially from India, is poised to impact Canadian universities financially, considering their annual contribution of about CUSD22 billion (USD16.4 billion) to the economy.
A capital market firm cautions that restricting access for temporary workers and international students to Canada could significantly hinder the nation’s economic rebound and exacerbate recession risks. Montreal-based Desjardins Securities forecasts a mere 0.1 percent growth in Canada’s real GDP for 2024, with an average annual increase of around 1.95 percent from 2025 to 2028.
However, closing off entry to temporary residents could lead to a more pronounced economic downturn, with a projected decline of 0.7 percent in real GDP for 2024 and a reduced annual growth rate of 1.78 percent for the subsequent four years, as reported by Bloomberg News, referencing the study.
Conversely, Randall Bartlett, Desjardins’ senior director of Canadian economics, suggests that doubling the intake of non-permanent residents could soften the anticipated economic slowdown and potentially avert a recession.

Indians in UAE to enjoy lower fares and faster Schengen visa processing time

Indian residents in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) planning trips to Europe can now benefit from more affordable airfares and faster processing times for Schengen visas, with wait times averaging two weeks or less. During the recent winter travel season, there was a notable increase in UAE and GCC residents traveling to European holiday destinations.

Broader context
The dip occurs amidst broader concerns, including Canada’s stance on allegations linking Indian agents to Nijjar’s murder, a claim India dismisses. The context is also shaped by a US charge against an individual collaborating with an Indian government employee for a murder plot in New York City, and Canada’s efforts to manage international student numbers amidst a housing crunch.Government measures

Federal officials cautioned that the government’s aggressive immigration objectives might compromise housing affordability. The Liberal government has established goals to welcome 485,000 immigrants in the current year and aims for 500,000 new arrivals in both 2025 and 2026.
Adding to the housing demand, the country has seen a substantial influx of temporary residents, predominantly international students and migrant workers, with over 300,000 arriving in just the third quarter of the previous year.
Amidst these challenges, Canada aims to recalibrate the influx of international students.
“Right now we have a challenge with the sheer volume” of incoming students, Miller expressed, hinting at significant, swift reductions and potential caps. The government is also set to address the postgraduate work permit program and ensure the legitimacy of educational institutions.

Industry concerns
Proposed restrictions, including a cap on off-campus work hours for international students, spark worries in sectors like food service and retail about potential labor shortages.

Looking ahead
With a projection of 900,000 international students in 2023, Indian students, despite a 4 per cent dip, remain the predominant group. The government’s proactive stance on managing this influx reflects broader policy considerations and the intricate balance between education, economics, and international relations.

(With inputs from agencies)