Global airlines forecast to exceed pre-pandemic capacity levels in 2024, ET TravelWorld
The latest report from FCM Consulting‘s Q4-2023 Quarterly Global Trends Report, drawing on data from Cirium, forecasts a significant milestone for the travel industry. Predictions indicate that combined corporate and leisure travel capacity in 2024 is poised to surpass the annual figures recorded in 2018 and 2019.
One striking trend highlighted in the report suggests a shift towards more seats with fewer flights. In the first half of 2024 (H1-2024), an estimated increase of +97.9 million seats (+3.5 per cent) is anticipated, accompanied by a decrease of -2.1 million flights (-5.6 per cent) compared to H1-2019. This trend is attributed to fleet configuration adjustments and schedule realignments aimed at meeting evolving demand dynamics.
Sunny Sodhi, Managing Director, FCM Travel India, emphasized the benefits of this trend for airlines, including favorable impacts on operating costs, staffing, airport slots, and overall efficiency. “Q4-2023 closed a milestone year, seeing corporate travel the busiest and least interrupted in over four years. Business travellers have become more confident than in previous years and are planning trips in 2024 to both grow their business and connect with clients and colleagues. Across the top global corporate airlines, we forecast that the seats offered in 2024 will be two per cent above 2019 and the number of flights offered will be down six per cent,” he said.According to the report, in the first half of 2024 compared to the first half of 2019, the following projections have been made for regional dynamics:
- Africa is expected to see an 11 per cent increase in seats and a 6 per cent increase in flights.
- The Middle East is projected to experience a 7 per cent increase in seats and a 4 per cent increase in flights.
- North America is anticipated to have a 7 per cent increase in seats but a 7 per cent decrease in flights.
- LATAM is expected to have a 6 per cent increase in seats but a 1 per cent decrease in flights.
- Asia is projected to experience a 3 per cent increase in seats and a 1 per cent increase in flights.
- Australasia is not expected to see any change in seats but a 2 per cent decrease in flights.
- Finally, Europe is likely to see a 1 per cent decrease in seats and an 8 per cent decrease in flights.
According to the latest forecast, it is expected that pre-COVID levels of IVAs shall be surpassed in 2024 under the mild scenario, and in 2025 under the medium scenario. While the Americas and the Pacific regions are forecast to have less potent growth compared to Asia, they still have generally significant growth rates and absolute volume increases, with some minor fluctuations over the forecast period.
Looking ahead to 2024, Sodhi predicts a resurgence in corporate travel, with business travellers displaying increased confidence and planning trips to foster business growth and strengthen professional relationships. Notably, major global airlines are expected to exceed pre-pandemic capacity levels, with two percent more seats offered in 2024 compared to 2019, albeit with a six percent reduction in the number of flights.The report also sheds light on fare trends, noting a significant increase in economy and business class fares on key routes such as Mumbai to London and Mumbai to Delhi. Meanwhile, the top domestic routes for business travellers in India remain consistent, with Chennai to Delhi topping the list.
In terms of accommodation, average room rates have risen across all regions, with Asia experiencing the highest increase globally. Delhi emerges as the leader in average room rates, followed by Bangalore and Mumbai. Despite the rise in costs, occupancy levels have shown a positive trajectory year-on-year across regions, with Mainland China witnessing a notable surge following the reopening of its borders.
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